The alliance between Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan, and a new tension between Russia's hybrid attacks on Europe

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This week, two very important international events took place that bring us closer to the conditions that could easily unleash a new world war:

1) Pakistan and Turkey signed a NATO-style mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia in Mecca on Friday, consolidating their longstanding security ties into a collective-defense alliance that stipulates that an attack against any of them “shall be regarded as an attack on them all.” Turkey has the second-largest military in NATO, behind only the US, while Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed Muslim nation. This strengthens Saudi deterrence and presents a united, Sunni-led military front against a mounting Iranian threat. The pact gives Saudi Arabia a powerful new layer of protection amid growing regional tensions with the United Arab Emirates, Israel’s expansionist policies, and serious doubts over whether the US can be relied upon to protect its oil-rich Gulf allies in the future.

Iran reacted publicly to this new military alliance in an aggressive tone, stating: “The Saudis should understand that a paper agreement with Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them security, just as decades of one-sided dependence on the Americans failed to do so.” Tehran repeatedly struck targets in Saudi Arabia during the war, including civilian infrastructure, energy facilities, and US interests, and has warned Gulf nations that renewed US attacks would trigger retaliation against energy or desalination facilities across the region. Direct Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia largely subsided after an April 8 ceasefire took hold, but Iran-backed groups in Yemen and Iraq continued targeting the kingdom.

The treaty signed in Mecca on Friday therefore serves as a warning to Tehran: another major attack on Saudi Arabia could invoke the pact, draw Pakistan and Turkey into the conflict, and dramatically widen the war.

2) According to German security sources, a drone bomb was discovered late Tuesday evening at Leipzig/Halle Airport, a major European air hub for transporting war materials to Ukraine. A forensic examination showed that the drone was equipped with “high-explosive material of the type used by the military.” The drone was discovered by airport employees when it was “hovering” at low altitude between two cargo aircraft belonging to a Ukrainian state-owned airline.

A bus driver employed at the airport reportedly saw the drone shortly before midnight and managed to bring it down to the ground by kicking it. A confidential police report obtained by German media reportedly shows that the Ukrainian cargo planes were loaded with military ammunition. The cargo flights are said to have arrived from France and landed in Leipzig shortly beforehand.

Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said on Wednesday:

“My assessment is that we are dealing with a hybrid attack scenario,” adding that he could not rule out “foreign powers.”

Over the past year, Russian officials have publicly claimed that they have a list of production and distribution sites in Europe that supply war materials to Ukraine and that these sites are now considered “valid military targets” by Russia. If, in the near future, a Russian drone carrying explosives kills people on European territory, this would represent a major escalation in a potential war between Western countries and Russia, Iran, and North Korea (and possibly China, if Beijing decides to further align itself militarily with Russia and also decides to invade Taiwan).