The Maldives, composed of 26 atolls, is the smallest country in Asia but because of its location in the Indian Ocean along world trade routes, has a strategic significance for world powers. Since the 13th century, the Maldives has been a Muslim-majority country that was first a Portuguese colony, then Dutch and finally a British one between 1796 and 1965 when it gained its independence.
Because of Climate Change and the water levels rising, the Maldives are at real risk of disappearing and the country has pushed for measures to mitigate the damages. Additionally, as a result of sanctions imposed upon the Russian oligarchs by the West in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many of them have sought refuge in the Maldives due to the absence of an extradition treaty with the United States and other countries.
Since its independence, India has had close ties with the Maldives due to geographical proximity and strategic location to control trade routes. Indian assistance over the past three decades has been huge. However, the Maldives joined China’s Belt and Road initiative in 2014, and China has become the biggest investor in the country. The Maldives has borrowed $1.5 billion from China, which now makes up 20 percent of its public debt
Due to this economic importance, a new pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu was elected in October 2023 with the promise to end India’s influence and instead switch the country’s loyalty towards China. Certainly, during the campaign, the main slogan of Muizzu was “India Out”. Moreover, there is genuine and growing resentment in the Maldives over Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s treatment of Indian Muslims.
As a matter of fact, Muizzu’s inaugural state visit was to China, where he announced increased financial and military cooperation, and signed some 20 “key” agreements, and requested China to become the Maldives' top tourist source. Then, in March 2024, the Maldivian defense ministry said it signed a pact to receive free military assistance from China to “foster strong bilateral ties.”
After peaceful bilateral agreements, India agreed to remove in May 2024 all its 89 soldiers it had in the atolls, but India is not staying passive and said it will instead build a new naval base 125 km away from the Maldives. Also, India offered the Maldives a budgetary support of nearly $50 million, and increased the export quotas of essential commodities. Finally, India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishankar visited the Maldives on Saturday for the first time since the pro-China government took power in October. In his visit, he said that India will help the Maldives to develop a massive water and sanitation project worth approximately $110 million. It will be commissioned under the Indian Line of Credit Facility by the Exim Bank of India.
With this move, India and China will both have substantial influence in the region without engaging in a dangerous power struggle, and the Maldives sovereignty is being respected. The Maldives case represents definitely the best side of a multipolar world that grows at the side of the unipolar influence of the United States, which was forced to open an embassy in the country in 2023 to not stay behind. A healthy competition is always welcome.
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