Lula's low approval ratings in Brazil

Lula’s approval rating has dropped to 25% in the last month. For comparison, in 2010 he left office with 87% support, and Obama had called him the "most popular president in the world."

The main complaints are rising prices and crime. Lula had promised to fix the inflation and “chaos” caused by Bolsonaro and said that Brazilians would once again be able to “eat picanha,” a very popular cut of beef that had become very expensive in recent years. However, food and beverage prices rose nearly 8% in 2024 compared to the previous year.

This is due to poor harvests caused by droughts and the fact that the currency has lost 25% of its value against the dollar over the past year, making imports more expensive. The currency has been devalued largely because of fiscal uncertainty caused by the government’s contradictory messages regarding deficit reduction and tax increases.

Many experts predict that inflation this year will be around 5%, much higher than the Central Bank’s target of 3%. Moreover, the Central Bank has raised its key interest rate to 13.25% to fight inflation, which is very harmful to consumers. Politicians generally prefer low interest rates from the central bank, as this increases short-term voter satisfaction.

Crime and violence are other major concerns, especially armed robberies on the streets of Brazil. Nearly one in ten Brazilians had their phone stolen between July 2023 and June 2024.

But the biggest political disaster occurred when Lula, a former union leader, suggested this year that the population could control food prices if families refrained from buying products they considered too expensive. This was mocked by the opposition and further irritated the Brazilian working class.

Finally, the last source of public anger came in January, when Lula’s government announced it would increase oversight and impose taxes on many financial transactions, including the popular instant phone payment system PIX.

On the positive side, unemployment is at 6.8%, slightly below the average of the last five years, and economic growth was 3.5% over the past year. Additionally, during his second term, Lula succeeded in leading Mercosur to sign a free trade agreement with the European Union, the most significant event since the South American trade bloc was created in 1991.