The economy of Russia is suffering, and Trump has lost his patience with Putin

The dynamics of the war in Ukraine have changed significantly in the last two weeks with several events of great importance.

Russia's military drones, missiles, and jets invaded the airspace of Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, and Romania. Moreover, all indications are that during this week, Russian drones were launched from a ship in the Baltic Sea and paralyzed the airports of Copenhagen and Oslo for two hours, and also crossed into the south of Sweden.

This week, Trump issued his biggest pro-Ukraine statement ever when he said on his social media that because the Russian economy is weak and just a “paper tiger,” Ukraine should take all the territories it has lost from Russia, and maybe beyond that. This is a major shift compared to his previous statements in which he suggested that in order to stop the war, the government of Zelensky needed to cede the territories that Russia currently occupies. Moreover, Trump stated publicly that "I thought that was going to be the easiest one [achieving peace in Ukraine] because of my relationship with Putin. But unfortunately, that relationship didn't mean anything".

In another topic, it is now confirmed that the Russian economy has been suffering a downfall for the first time since the war started. This is because a combination of: a) world oil prices plummeting 40% since 2022, affecting its main source of revenue; b) international sanctions; and c) a spike of expenses in the military sector that create imbalances in the national economy.

Indeed, Russia’s Finance Ministry is now expecting 24% lower revenues from oil and gas this year, compared with earlier estimates, and has lowered its oil price forecast from $69.7 to $56 per barrel. Ukraine’s drone offensive is targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure.

Russia's war operations will continue to intensify, as the Russian government just approved a draft for the 2025–2027 budget last week that plans to increase defense spending by $145 billion in 2025. This is up 25% from the 2024 level, and will now represent 6.3% of Russia's GDP (most industrialized countries spend around 2.5% of GDP at this moment).

Another problem for Putin is the growing opposition to the war in Ukraine among Russian voters. According to September data from the Levada Center, an independent and the most reliable Russian pollster, a record 66% of respondents in Russia now say it is time to move toward peace negotiations, while just 27% support continuing military action. This is the lowest level of support ever recorded since 2022.