Trump's bet to breach Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

The Iran War is almost impossible to solve:

1) The US and Israel will never allow Iran to keep its nuclear enrichment program that started a couple of years ago.

2) Because Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the world's economy is suffering and there is a serious risk that oil shortages will hit most countries in the following weeks.

3) The US cannot seize the Strait of Hormuz because Iran can always deploy small units to bomb vessels passing its coast.

4) The US has enforced a blockade of all Iranian coasts, but Iran can still trade through its land borders.

5) The US has midterm elections and Trump's popularity is at record low, with Democrats poised to win the elections.

To try to find a way out of this trap, this week the US has started to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz with guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft, and some 15,000 service members.

Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US will “help free up” ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz from Monday, suggesting that his administration will break Iran’s blockade of the strategic waterway. So far in the war, Washington has been reluctant to put US Navy warships within range of Iranian shore-based anti-ship missiles or small attack craft that Tehran can field in numbers in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has warned that any US interference in the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire that has been in effect since April 8. Despite the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is also shared by Oman and the UAE, Iran has taken it as a hostage asset in the current war. Its forces would “respond harshly” to any threat, it added, telling commercial ships and oil tankers to refrain from any movement in the absence of coordination with Iran’s military, stating that the security of the Strait of Hormuz is in Iran's hands.

Trump had previously suggested that he is comfortable with the status quo of the competing blockades in the Gulf, arguing that the US siege was “more effective than bombing.” However, Trump’s move this week could be a negotiating tactic to put pressure on Iran.

The US operation is extremely difficult:

Tight waterways make escorting convoys problematic, as there is little room to maneuver to avoid threats.

Iran retains a large number of its missiles and drones, including some reportedly dug up from where they were buried to evade airstrikes in March.

The Revolutionary Guard Navy is also thought to possess powerful anti-ship missiles which pose a serious threat to any US Navy warship escorting merchant vessels past Iran’s coastline.

Since Monday, Iran has attacked several commercial vessels that have tried to cross the Hormuz Strait, and two American destroyers USS Truxtun and USS Mason passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday under fire from Iran. Around 800 international ships and their crews are still stranded in the Strait since the war started on February 28.

However, the Danish shipping company Maersk reported today that its American subsidiary, Alliance Fairfax, safely sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, May 4. The transit was completed without problems, and the entire crew is safe and unharmed. The ship, which flies under the American flag, was accompanied by the American military during the passage.

The US military said it sank six Iranian small boats that tried to interfere with commercial shipping amid the US operation to open the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the UAE said it downed 15 missiles and four drones from Iran on Tuesday, stating it had the right to respond to what it called “treacherous” attacks, as a fire broke out at an oil facility in Fujairah after a reported drone attack.

Meanwhile, fears of oil shortages continue to spread around the world. Europe has "maybe six weeks of jet fuel left," the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on April 16. Stocks would reach a tipping point in June if Europe was unable to replace at least half of its imports from the Middle East, as Europe has relied on the region for about 75% of its jet fuel imports. Many airlines around the world have had to take emergency measures to counter the rising cost of fuel, which typically makes up 20%–40% of their operating costs.