The new strategies of the US and Iran to win de war

Hello! This is my briefing regarding the current situation regarding US stategy for the Iran War!

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the country’s right to enrich uranium was “indisputable” although the level of enrichment is “negotiable”, as it said that exchanges with the US had continued following failed negotiations over the weekend.

Iran still has control of the Strait of Hormuz, and very few ships have been authorised by the Iranians to cross it. However, it is wrong to assume that "Iran's nuclear weapon is in reality the control of the Hormuz". This is because the US has just started its own blockade against Iranian coasts on all Iranian ships entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Facing record-low support at home, as well the current negative view on Israel by a majority of Americans, Trump's rationale is that if Iran can’t export its oil and import vital commodities, it will suffer such ruinous financial and humanitarian consequences that it will have no choice but to accept US terms to end the war: more than 90% of its annual trade passes through the strait.

The US Navy has sufficient assets in the region. And it has long experience in enforcing US and international blockades, including in the former Yugoslavia, Haiti, and more recently against sanctioned oil tankers in Venezuela before the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro.

The objective of this operation is to create pressure on outside nations that buy Iranian oil, such as China and India, to try to force Tehran back to the negotiating table. But if US forces stop a Chinese ship bound from Iran, it will risk creating a diplomatic incident weeks before Trump is due to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, which the president has long been looking forward to.

Finally, Iran’s military warned it would block trade through the Red Sea, along with the Gulf and Sea of Oman, if the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continues. However, it is unlikely that Iran has the capacity to enforce that, since its navy has been decimated, and the Houthis have limited military capacity right now.