Ukraine is having the upper hand in the war against Russia
- Jun 15
- 2 min read
For the first time since 2023, Ukraine appears to have gained a sustained tactical advantage in the war over the past several months.
This despite the fact that the United States under President Trump has stopped direct military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Instead, European assistance has increased and filled much of the gap, in line with what Trump demanded.
A key factor in Ukraine’s recent battlefield performance has been its growing advantage in drone warfare. Ukrainian drone operations have significantly disrupted Russian supply logistics and have become increasingly central to modern warfare, which enables smaller states to better resist larger conventional militaries (as Iran vs. the US/Israel).
•Since February 2026, Russian casualties are estimated at around 35,000 per month, while Russia is recruiting approximately 27,000 soldiers per month.
•Ukrainian casualties are estimated at around 10,000 per month.
•Ukrainian attacks into Russian territory have doubled in recent months. Only in May, at least 31 Ukrainian attacks were reported on refineries, export terminals, and pipelines inside Russia, including in Saint Petersbourg.
•Severe oil shortages and queues have been reported in Crimea, occupied by Russia since 2014, and the Russian controlled regions.
•President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged that the increased intensity of Ukrainian attacks is causing damage to the Russian economy and society.
•Oil and gas revenues fell by approximately 45% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period the previous year.
•Russia’s oil production has declined for six consecutive months, falling by roughly 370,000 barrels per day since November 2025.
•This decline leaves Russia producing about 690,000 barrels per day below its OPEC+ quota.
•Russia’s liquid sovereign wealth fund assets have declined from 6.5% of GDP at the start of the war to approximately 1.8% in April 2026.
•The federal budget deficit exceeded the government’s full-year target within the first three months of 2026.
•GDP growth slowed to 0.6% in 2025 and is projected to remain at a similar level in 2026.
•Military spending accounted for 46% of total federal budget expenditures in Q1 2026, meaning nearly every second ruble spent was directed toward the military.
•The Russian federal budget recorded a January–April 2026 deficit of 5.877 trillion rubles (approximately 2.5% of GDP), according to official figures. The planned full-year deficit is 3.786 trillion rubles (about 1.6% of GDP).
•Budget revenues fell by 4.5% year-on-year in January–April, totaling 11.721 trillion rubles.
•Amid increasing casualties, economic pressures, and reported internet outages in major cities, public support for President Vladimir Putin has declined from approximately 75% in 2022 to around 60% in May 2026, according to independent polling.
Footage on the attacks in Saint Petersbourg:
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