How did Trump’s tariffs affect the US economy, and how are the numbers of crime and illegal immigration?

According to several polls, the economy, crime and illegal immigration are three of the most important topics for US voters.

ECONOMY

POSITIVE RESULTS

By late December 2025, the economic narrative regarding Trump tariffs has shifted from one of "inevitable crisis" predicted by mainstream economists and Trump critics to a more nuanced reality. In the third quarter of 2025, GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.3%, compared to 2.8% in 2024. Moreover, the US500 Stock Market Index grew 10% since the previous historical high this January on the day of Trump’s inauguration, with the AI sector expanding under Trump.

America First trade policy has incentivized a shift toward reshoring and nearshoring. The Institute for Supply Management December 2025 Survey indicated that 18% of US manufacturers were "actively looking" to shift production to the U.S. from abroad within a six-month window, citing the avoidance of duties and geopolitical risks as primary drivers. Furthermore, large-scale investment announcements from firms like TSMC, Apple, and US Steel (outlining a $14 billion domestic plan) signal a renewed focus on building long-term domestic capacity in high-tech and heavy industry.

On the cost of living, President Biden left office with headline inflation at 2.4%, whereas by late 2025 inflation is at 2.7%, despite widespread alarmism stating that most of the tarrif costs will be transfered to consumer prices. This stability has been maintained partly because foreign exporters absorbed a portion of the tariff costs and foreign suppliers have dimished their export prices to retain their American market share.

The federal government collected in 2024 roughly $77 billion in customs duties, whereas in 2025 that figure will reach approximately $236 billion, making tariffs a major pillar of the federal budget, serving as a significant offset to other fiscal pressures.

The fiscal year 2025 deficit ended at $1.78 trillion, or 5.9% of GDP which is a little lower than 6.4% in 2024. While the 2024 deficit was largely driven by infrastructure and climate spending, the 2025 deficit is being fueled by new tax cuts and rising interest payments on the national debt.

NEGATIVE RESULTS

Despite Trump claiming that US employment would increase due to companies moving to the US, unemployment rose from 4.2 in November 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and some branches like electronics and automobiles have seen increases of 15-20%.

CRIME

POSITIVE RESULTS

Mass shoutings are at a record low level since 2004 and fell by 24% compared to 2024.

Murders: Murders fell by approximately 20% in 2025 compared to 2024. This follows a 14.9% drop in 2024.

Robbery: Reports of robbery decreased by 20% in the first half of 2025. Carjackings, a specific subcategory of robbery that spiked during the pandemic, saw a particularly sharp decline of 24% to 32% depending on the urban sample.

Motor Vehicle Theft: After peaking in 2023, vehicle thefts plummeted by 23% to 25% in 2025.

Burglary: Both residential and non-residential burglaries fell significantly. Residential burglaries dropped by 19%, and the national burglary rate in 2025 reached its lowest level since the mid-1970s.

Larceny and Shoplifting: Larceny (theft without force) fell by 12%. While shoplifting had increased in 2024.

NEGATIVE RESULTS

While overall hate crime has remained the same compared to 2024, anti-Jewish hate crimes rose by 12% and anti-Muslim incidents rose by 18% year-over-year. As of late 2025, anti-Jewish crimes represent roughly 70% of all religion-motivated hate crimes.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Since January 20, 2025, border patrol encounters have decreased to levels not seen in decades. By November 2025, nationwide encounters fell to 30,375, a 92% decrease from the Biden-era peak. The daily average for apprehensions on the southwest border dropped to roughly 245 per day by late 2025, compared to an average of over 5,100 per day during the previous administration.

NEGATIVE

However, the number of deaths in ICE custody has risen significantly, making 2025 the deadliest year for detainees since 2004 with 32 people that have died in ICE custody this calendar year.