Although an open war has broken out between Iran and Israel, two pro-Iranian groups have remained on the sidelines of the conflict: Hamas and the Houthis. Hamas is currently very weakened militarily after its defeat in the Gaza war. In addition, the group has publicly expressed support for the peace process proposed by Trump, so entering the war now could endanger that process and even compromise what remains of its own organization. On the other hand, the organizational capacity of the...

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, is one of the most critical arteries of global trade. Around 30 percent of the world’s oil supply and about 20 percent of seaborne liquefied natural gas pass through it. At its narrowest point, the strait is just 33 kilometers wide, with shipping lanes only about 3 kilometers wide in each direction. Because of its location, it serves as a crucial chokepoint for oil deliveries from OPEC countries to customers in Asia and...

US knowledge of Russia’s plans came primarily from two sources: satellite imagery and information from sources close to the Kremlin. The satellite images came from open-source providers such as Maxar Technologies. This allowed media outlets to report in November 2021 that tens of thousands of Russian soldiers had gathered near the Ukrainian border. Intelligence work targeting Russia was conducted by the US National Security Agency (NSA) and the UK’s Government Communications Headquarters...