Chile’s presidential election is this Sunday: immigration, crime and the economy

This Sunday, nearly 16 million Chileans will head to the polls for the first round of a sharply polarized presidential race shaped by mounting fears over crime and immigration. The vote follows several turbulent years in typically calm Chile, the world’s top copper producer and one of Latin America’s wealthiest nations.

Between October 2019 and March 2020, Chile was rocked by violent protests that resulted in more than 8,800 arrests, nearly 3,400 hospitalizations, and over 30 deaths. In a moment of crisis, President Sebastián Piñera’s government proposed a constitutional plebiscite, which passed with 78% support—an outcome championed by the most radical sectors of the left.

Elected in December 2021, former student leader Gabriel Boric promised a sweeping overhaul of Chilean politics. His coalition attempted to replace the current constitution with what would have been the world’s most progressive charter, but voters rejected the draft by more than 60%. After that defeat, Boric’s Democratic Socialism project struggled to deliver its promised transformation. His most notable achievements include reining in pandemic-era spending, raising the minimum wage by 51% without fueling inflation, and reducing the workweek from 45 to 40 hours. Still, his administration is set to record the lowest economic growth since Chile’s return to democracy—just 1.8%.

Public concerns over crime have intensified. Research from the University of San Sebastián shows that 80% of Chileans believe visible crime has increased in the past six months. Since 2017, homicide rates have risen in 13 of the country’s 16 regions, according to the Universidad del Desarrollo, even as common crimes like theft and robbery have declined.

As a result, Boric’s credibility has eroded. His government’s disapproval rating has climbed to 65%, compounded by weak economic performance: GDP grew by only 0.2% in 2023, far from the 5–6% rates Chile once posted. Presidents cannot serve consecutive terms, but Boric could run again after the next administration.

The three leading candidates are Communist Jeannette Jara, Boric’s former labor minister who pledges to extend progressive reforms; the far-right José Antonio Kast, a hardline conservative and founder of the Republican Party often dubbed “Chile’s Trump,” now on his third presidential bid with a platform centered on bolstering police and expanding prisons; and libertarian Johannes Kaiser, regarded as Chile’s version of Javier Milei, who promises to eliminate two-thirds of government ministries, crack down on migration, and withdraw from international climate and human-rights agreements. Like Kast, he has openly praised Pinochet.

Illegal immigration and crime dominate the election. Although Chile typically ranks among South America’s most politically and economically stable countries, unrest has grown alongside a surge in newcomers. Foreign residents reached about 10% of the population last year—double the share in 2018—driven largely by Venezuelans escaping Nicolás Maduro’s collapsing dictatorship. Immigration has coincided with a spike in violent crime: the homicide rate jumped from 2.32 per 100,000 people in 2015 to 6.0 last year, kidnappings hit a record 868 cases, and once-rare crimes such as daytime shootouts and contract killings have shocked the nation.

Nearly 40% of homes suffered break-ins last year, and almost 30% of Chileans were victims of crime. A report from Fundación Paz Ciudadana found that 24% now believe they could be murdered within the next year. The private security industry has surged 350% over the past decade, according to a December 2024 study by the National Chamber of Commerce—an indicator of growing distrust in state protection.

Despite the rise in violence, Chile’s homicide rate—6 per 100,000 in 2023—remains low by regional standards, according to the World Bank. But since 2021, the country has faced an uptick in kidnapping, extortion, contract killings, and cellphone theft linked to transnational criminal groups.

Against this backdrop, right-wing candidates promising tough immigration controls and aggressive law-and-order measures are gaining momentum. Kast has unveiled a “border shield” proposal to build trenches and five-meter barriers along large stretches of the northern frontier, echoing Donald Trump’s border-wall approach. He also vows to mirror El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele by expanding police forces and imposing harsher sentences on organized crime.

With no candidate likely to surpass 50% on Sunday, the race will head to a December runoff between the top two finishers. Jara is expected to secure one of those spots, with Kast the likely rival, though Kaiser has enjoyed a late surge.

Current polling indicates that Jara would lose any head-to-head matchup, facing a unified conservative electorate. With voters eager to oust the political establishment, her association with Boric has become a major liability.