What is happening in Nepal?

Nepal was never colonised, but in the 19th century its kings formed an alliance with the British Empire and served as a buffer state between Imperial China and British India. During the years of collaboration with the British Empire under the Rana dynasty that ruled Nepal from 1846 to 1951, slavery was legal until the 1920s, serfdom was the common labour contract, and political repression was brutal.

Later on, from the 1960s to the 1990s, the Panchayat system banned political parties and concentrated all power in the figure of the king, with Hinduism as the official religion of the country. Popular discontent with the Panchayat system eexploded in 1990, when the banned Nepali Congress and the United Left Front (an alliance of Maoist/communist parties) launched a campaign of popular demonstrations and strikes to end the system and restore multiparty democracy. King Birendra was forced to lift the political-party ban of that year and end the Panchayat system that had dominated Nepal for almost 30 years.

Despite the changes in the political system, massive street protests in 2006 led by communist movements forced King Gyanendra to abdicate, and two years later the parliament voted to abolish the monarchy and establish a secular republic. After that, Gyanendra abandoned politics and started to live the life of a commoner. Since then, the country has been ruled mainly by the Communist Party of Nepal and the Nepali Congress Party (centre-left), which have kept many authoritarian features of the old regime.

In the last 20 years of this hybrid democratic system, economic performance has been poor, corruption extremely high, and violations of civil liberties recurrent. Moreover, Nepal has had 13 governments since the monarchy was abolished in 2008, and many demonstrations have taken place recently by people who demand the re-establishment of the monarchy.

In that context, the Marxist-inspired left-wing government of Prime Minister Sharma Oli took the decision last week to ban 26 social media platforms, including WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook, for failing to meet a deadline to register with Nepal's Ministry of Communication and Information Technology.

As a result, young people identifying as Gen Z went to the streets to protest, but very quickly demonstrations turned violent as some protesters managed to breach security perimeters in the capital Kathmandu, set fire to parliament and other government buildings, and attack the houses of political leaders around the country.

So far, 22 protesters have died in clashes with police. Prime Minister Sharma Oli has resigned, the ban on social media has been lifted, and the army is now de facto in charge of leading the country by engaging in dialogue with the protesters. Protesters do not have a clear leader, but their two main demands are the government fighting corruption and ending “NepoKids” (young people connected to politicians who enjoy success and luxury without merit, living off public money while ordinary Nepalis struggle).

The political future of Nepal is very unclear at the moment, as many outcomes are plausible: the return of the monarchy, a violent revolution, a coup d’état, the return to “business as usual” with the previous corrupt government, a peaceful transition to liberal democracy, or a long stagnation in negotiations between the ruling elites and young protesters.